Our favorite analyst speaks:
Wednesday July 29, 11:16 am Eastern Time
Merrill's Kurlak see no imminent pick-up for chips
NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - Thomas Kurlak, a widely respected semiconductor analyst at Merrill Lynch, said Wednesday he sees does not expect a recovery soon in the computer chip industry, especially with a price war brewing.
The comments cast a slight pall over chip stocks, with the Philadelphia Stock Exchange chip index (^SOXX - news) down 0.66 points or 0.26 percent to 253.41 in early trading.
In a brief research note, Kurlak said risks of earnings disappointments in the third quarter are on the rise. He said the recent rally in the chip sector has been narrow, focused only in a few selected shares, and is not sustainable.
Intel Corp. (INTC - news), one of the world's top chipmakers, has seen its shares rally nearly 30 percent since June, from 66 to today's price of 85. In the same time period, the broader chip index (^SOXX - news) meanwhile rallied only about 8 percent.
The June/July rally come after a nearly year-long slump for the chip sector from its August 1997 highs. Since then the market has been mostly moving lower, with the exception of a brief rally in the first quarter of 1998 that later unraveled.
Kurlak said that investors should guard against chasing this recent rally because of a lack of fundamental support. He said there is still a glut of chips on the market and demand has not yet shown a strong enough gain.
''Fundamental upturn not imminent -- too much supply, final demand not good,'' he said.
Leading technology companies that buy computer chips showed weakness in their second-quarter results, he said, a sign that demand is not likely to roar higher soon.
Chip stocks, which had been trading higher near the opening, turned fractionally lower in late morning trading with the broader market. Intel shares lost 1/16 to 85-9/16. Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN - news) slipped 2/16 to 58-15/16, Micron Technology Inc (MU - news) lost 1/16 to 29-7/8 and National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM - news) was down 3/16 to 12-3/4.
Best wishes,
I2 |
