Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: bearshark who wrote (22606)	7/29/1998 12:54:00 PM
From: P.T.Burnem	Read Replies (1) of 94695

I would be happy with a thin 250 point rebound in the DJI and then another general decline with a loss of 500 DJI points or so. Looking at the charts for the DJI, TRAN, OEX, and SPX, one could conclude that we just had a healthy correction to a rally. If one had looked at the charts of the major averages in September of 1987, one would have arrived to a similar conclusion. You might want to dig up a 1987 A/D chart and compare it to its 1998 reincarnation. To me, the market looks and feels just like the one we had in September of 1987, with one exception: in 1987, interest rates were rising. Whether or not the difference is important remains to be seen. The consensus seems to be that bear markets do not occur in a low-interest environment, but that can turn on a dime if the market closes >10% off its high. PTB

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