Tech Watcher, <You would think that eventually the public could be educated to know the difference between a commodity company and one with proprietary technology>
Oh, not in this market <g>
But seriously, you're absolutely right.
I'm not a huge fan of this company's management team by any stretch, but the people out there in the fabs seem to be really good where it counts. So that's their competitive edge.
The problem is - there are times when the macro forces are so bad in this type of market (commodity business, limited pricing power) that you can be really good where it counts, have that competitive edge, and still not get anywhere until some of the larger forces work themselves out.
You would think the market would factor that in, but I think part of it is that a lot of folks are looking for lightening to strike again like it did back in '95 - DRAM price spike, stock spike. I just don't think that's going to happen. None of the players are getting caught flat-footed by lacking the capacity to meet a sudden surge in demand, and although memory may be rising in our PC's, the same type of dynamic that was present back then (Windows 95 + next gen of MPU's) that made everything so dramatic in terms of skyrocketing demand, now it's just not there to the same extent.
Prices may recover somewhat, but if and when they do I'm just having a tough time seeing how it's going to be '95 all over again. But you look at the way the thing's priced it's almost like that seems to be an implicit expectation.
Good trading,
Tom
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