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Technology Stocks : ACLY- ACCELR8. Year 2000 Stock

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To: ThirdEye who wrote (1418)7/29/1998 2:13:00 PM
From: PFactor  Read Replies (2) of 1518
 
I have read many mails on this thread which range in emotion from optimistic hope to outright cynicism. Many or most of the mails don't seem to portray a basic understanding of software development and how companies will tackle the Year 2000 issue.

Companies like ACCELR8 have tried to tap into the Y2K market with tools like their NAVIG8 suite. However experience with their products (like those of all the other tool vendors I have heard of) has shown that these (generally smallish) companies underestimated the complexity and intelligence required of the tools to meet business needs. What has typically happened with y2K tools is that they have either been quite useless or very complex to use in terms of needing a lot of bug fixing and skilled people to interpret the output. This has generally resulted in disillusionment on the behalf ot Y2K project delivery resources or at least a failure to achieve any productivity gains with these tools over simpler and more reliable scanning tools.

A company like ACLY is not a "victim of the DEC deal". What has probably happened is that the tools have generally failed to cut the mustard with DEC Y2K delivery teams in the front line despite whatever deals may be struck at a corporate level. I understand that DEC are more generally using their own home-grown tools and expertise on their numerous Y2K projects. Don't underestimate the capacity of DEC worldwide delivery teams to quietly develop their own scanning tools and get on with the work which largely comes down to language expertise and manual conversion and testing processes which are difficult/impossible to automate.

Also don't forget that the No 1 solution for most companies is to tackle the problem inhouse using their own resources. These companies usually go to the market to the likes of DEC to provide Y2K assessment or testing methodology. If a company doesn't have enough staff then buying a Y2K toolset will still not reduce the need for staff based on current experience with these tools. Small companies like ACLY don't have the necessary bodies to train/support many projects to a clients satisfaction.

On the issue of a life beyond Y2K for ACLY, I believe that COMPAQ marketing excellence will probably make the excellent DEC Alpha platform a real competitor to the IBM world. Now if ACLY were to use their DEC knowledge to specialize in migrating legacy DEC applications to ones running on Windows NT on Alpha then their potential could be huge. DEC VAX and Alpha are going to be around for a very long time running critical applications and may even assist COMPAQ overcome the problems they are likely to increasingly encounter in the tricky PC market.

That's my personal 2 cents based on some Y2K coalface experience! Best of luck to all.

GL
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