teri:
thanks very much for the info (and complements). I'll respond in a general way:
How I learned TA: I read a tome (Technical Analysis Explained, by Pring), read a couple of thousand posts on SI, and stared at a lot of charts, trying to do pattern recognition. The results: when I did my taxes for 1997, I had large short-term cap gains, exactly balanced by large short-term losses. My only gains (and they were large also) were my long-term holdings. I'm still trying, and so far am way ahead this year. I wouldn't claim to have much skills at TA or short-term timing.
Please don't repost anything I said, around the same time Cary did post #8520. I probably agread enthusiastically that AMAT would make 5$ in 1998, and 7$/share in 1999. I don't remember, and please don't remind me, I've had enough humbling experiences recently.
Re: Lehman upgrading MU, citing "roughly stable pricing during the next year". Reminds me of the patient who was reported to have "stable vital signs". Heart rate zero, blood pressure zero over zero, respirations zero......
re: "trying to think like the market thinks." I don't. I try to think rationally, and exploit the irrational behavior of the market. AMAT at 30 times 1999 earnings is something you couldn't have predicted, and wouldn't have predicted if you think the market is efficient. But you can take advantage of it once it happens. |
