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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 220.66

+1.6%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: umbro who wrote (11949)	7/29/1998 5:08:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (3) of 164684

AMZN options report for 07/29/98 AMZN price: 107.813 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 99.61 OI = 15271 VOL = 5480 call price: 119.56 OI = 9207 VOL = 2157 consensus: 107.05 R = 1.7 R = 2.5 Options Forecast for: SEP put price: 94.50 OI = 1370 VOL = 1042 call price: 134.79 OI = 582 VOL = 84 consensus: 103.64 R = 2.4 R = 12.4 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 90.64 OI = 4388 VOL = 238 call price: 124.42 OI = 6438 VOL = 216 consensus: 112.26 R = 0.7 R = 1.1 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 85.08 OI = 2936 VOL = 130 call price: 135.21 OI = 2384 VOL = 30 consensus: 110.62 R = 1.2 R = 4.3 net long/short: -0.54 mil. i.v. for AUG = 0.865 i.v. for SEP = 0.890 i.v. for OCT = 0.902 i.v. for JAN = 0.859 Wow. 5-fold increase in put volume today, with put/call rateios as 12 in the September options. Given today's volatility, I'd have expected to see a bigger jump in implied vols, but instead they've all dropped off a bit from yesterday. Maybe there were just more buyers and sellers today, so it was easier for the market makers to balance risk. At this point with the major increase in put volume, I'd be a cautious bear. We saw the break below 115 today, and more importantly a close below 110, which was a support level on the most recently leg up. If AMZN stays below 112, it looks like a safe bet to stay short, but a break back above 112 might signal a reversal.

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