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Technology Stocks : General Magic

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To: hoffy who wrote (2989)7/29/1998 6:55:00 PM
From: Ray Rueb  Read Replies (2) of 10081
 
Great News!! Confirmation of Portico release!!!

<< That's because people are in shock over the earnings and worried that they are about to lose a lot of their money. Nobody expected much but they really look terrible. >>

I think you missed the core of this release...
it was in BOLD at the top of the message:

Company to Release Portico Service July 30

Of course expenses were higher!
They are ramping up on a new product...

Of course revenues are down!
GMGC is only showing income from older products whose revenue has been in decline.

Only truly uninformed people wouldn't understand this situation.

<< The Company incurred a net loss of $7.3 million, or $0.82 per share, in the second quarter of 1998 compared to a net loss of $6.4 million, or $0.43 per share, in the first quarter of 1998 and a net loss of $6.7 million, or $0.25 per share, in the second quarter of 1997. >>

What did you think all the additional financing was for???
To cover the losses incurred while ramping up on the new product.

GMGC will take 2 more quarters to show real profits from portico.

<< The net loss per share for the second quarter of 1998 included... >>
... lots of technical stuff associated with their financing ...
<< Excluding the effect of these adjustments, the net loss per share for the second quarter of 1998 and first quarter of 1998 would
have been $0.25 and $0.23, respectively. >>

Hey, on a per share basis, the loss isn't that bad considering all the hiring and infrastructure they've had to put into place to launch portico.

<< I bet this gets scalped tomorrow. They'l be better days to buy this in a few months. >>

Now this is a different issue...
The last time an earnings report came out, April 20?,
we had 2 down days (10% down) followed by immediate recovery.

The real question is...
How many people were "shocked" like you?
Personally, I was expecting worse numbers.

I think more people were nervous that GMGC would not launch on the 30th.
I also think that it was this nervousness that has held back the stock price.

If we do go down tomorrow,
I expect nothing more than a sharp drop (10%) at the open,
followed by an up day which more than makes up for the open.
If more news is released tomorrow
(this would be consistent with what I feel about Markman;
why would he allow his great launch day to be marred by a
sharp price decline in the stock?),
there will be a serious rise at 12:30ET on news.

Warning: ALL of my comments are colored by the fact that I am very long on GMGC.

Good luck to all

Ray
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