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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 229.60+1.5%Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (12069)7/30/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: Tim McCormick  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
R. D. I've studied this for many years. The only reliable use of P/C ratios is when option volume of the four nearby strike series is at least equiv. to 1/3 avg. daily stock vol. Very few stocks trade this much option volume. It works well when call speculation on a widely rumored takeover gets out of hand. In fact, even P/C ratios on the indices appear to be less relevant than years ago. The volume is just not there. You also have to be careful how you measure it-after an extended up move, the out of the money put series are so plentiful that contract volume alone is meaningless. You have to calculate the dollar weighted volume values. Also, it is important to remember, the friday before the '87 crash P/C was screaming buy. I think what happens is a point is reached where the Delta hedge panic overrides all contrarianist sentiment strategy. Anyway, even after implementing volume constraints you have to use a 5 day MA to smooth out distortions and not be too early. Tim
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