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Technology Stocks : ACLY- ACCELR8. Year 2000 Stock

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To: ThirdEye who wrote (1423)7/30/1998 9:40:00 AM
From: PFactor   of 1518
 
Here is the situation on the ground as reported to me by people that have been directly involved. You can choose to believe this or not. I have no position in this Y2K stock or others and I wish them all well as long as all and their PR/brokers etc are responsible in their investor relations.

DEC have had Y2K centers in operation since 1996 mostly using their own tools, scanning, reporting etc. These centers have already processed large amounts of code for major customers who generally wish to remain pretty anonymous. As far as I understand all the available DEC staff and contractors that can be found to work on Y2K are already on the job so don't expect any significant ramping up from here (there are only so many staff to go around).

DEC have signed a deal with ACLY as they have with other tool vendors (including testing tool vendors) so that their people have access to all the tools that may offer some efficiencies for the DEC versions of programming languages that the large applications of concern to customers, centered on their VAX and ALPHA platforms, are developed in. Whether these tools offer any extra productivity to the delivery teams is the key issue. Remember that there are many programming languages and variants of languages out there on DEC platforms that are not covered by tools like NAVIG8 (one of the reasons that DEC has developed its own tools). Remember too that a tool that is only 90% accurate for a particular language will not offer great productivity gains since an analyst will have to spend the same amount of time manually trawling through all the code to find the missed 10%.

If a customer came to DEC with huge applications written in Pro*COBOL with Oracle Forms and/or VB front ends all hosted on VAX or ALPHA (as they have) what does the ACLY toolset offer in this environment? DEC people would have to rely on their inhouse tools but mostly what is needed are bodies, expertise and more bodies. By the way client server type developments like the above can in fact be more Y2K non-ready than some of the older legacy systems (remember that DEC mainstay hardware and layered products VAX, ALPHA, VMS and RDB are themselves Y2K ready). You can inform yourself about the serious Y2K issues with the more modern development products like Oracle Forms 3, 4.5 etc if you like.

In general tools offer only small benefits in terms of the overall picture and the key to the Y2K game is the availability of expert programming staff and plenty of them. As others have rightly said there is no magic bullet. People in the IT development industry have always known this and this reality is probably only being now reflected in stock prices.

Equally, thinking that tools will be hugely useful in migrating from legacy 3GL-based applications to SAP or NT is probably wishful thinking. Once again the availability of skilled bodies or partners with these bodies and the right credibility is the key.

I suppose that you could conclude that Y2K revenue is limited by the number of training or project delivery bodies available. There is no "Y2K hoax" as suspected by some. Companies out there are quietly struggling to sift through their code with few resources. There are real problems with on average 25% or so of all code modules across the board and from what I've heard from very good sources many companies and government bodies are in poor shape for the millennium right now. Of course they have not yet begun to admit this.
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