Sam,
No forecast or analyst is ever always right. If you were to see a history of past IDC forecast over the last 2 years, you would see that all of them have been too optimistic! In every single forecast, IDC has to lower industry expectations.
This is really the major problem! DD companies use this type of forecast to put in manufacturing capacity to meet the rising demand and for putting together built plans. With long lead time needed for disk and head capacity, companies now have excess capacity in disk and heads (which is why we are seeing problems with Komag, Stormedia, Readrite, and etc.) The higher built plans (and lost of market share) result in excess inventory (Seagate, Quantum and Western Digital).
>>No offense to IDC, but their projections are just that, and aren't really worth that much. <<
So, maybe its worth all the money that people lost in investing in the DD sector stocks or the DD companies quarterly losses resulting from using IDC forecasts.
- Happy Investing |
