Rich, from what I can tell, the goal is 400,000 iMacs sold domestically by Christmas, and another 250,000 overseas. I think Apple knows it can sell as many as it can make this quarter and that figure is more like 250,000. We'll see. The AIO has some real selling points to education (being designed specifically for that market) so it can hold up well this quarter. However, your 125,000 figure is very reasonable.
I do think Apple has the manufacturing to pump out a lot of iMacs and new G3s. (The PowerBook problems were somewhat out of Apple's control with the screens, etc.) Apple never really ran out of G3s and I was very impressed. Yes, there were some shortages on the 266 tower, but I always saw a good selection at my local stores. I think Apple is doing a better job of forecasting and meeting demand for desktops. Also, the iMac has been pumping out of factories for days so I think there will be more on hand than there were G3s back in November and certainly way more than there were PowerBooks.
Don't just take Anderson's word for revenue growth this quarter. Look at Apple's historical sales pattern. Also, Apple said early in the year that this quarter is now the big one, not December.
The addition of the 300 mhz G3 machine was sort of tepid but what's coming in August feels more like a major refresh to me. It may spur sales on the high margin stuff. There may be more pent-up demand than we realize.
Anyway, let's stay conservative with our expectations, but realize what kind of upside could be brewing. If the amount of iMacs on shelves in September is anemic, then we should delve into Apple's manufacturing capabilities further.
Regards,
Marc |
