John,
Thanks for your reply, and kind thoughts. I will post my analysis on LCAV whenever I have something meaningful to report. Although I have faith in the company and their current management, I won't hesitate to give the negatives if and when I see them.
At the current time do to the narrow trading range of LCAV, there isn't much to say. Upside resistance is $3.75 with downside support at $3.00, and below that $2.75. Should the price break through either support or resistance, volume and volatiliy should increase.
If I had to guess, it is likely that the price will test the $2.75 support before the upward price trend is re-established. I also think that the recent aborted rally of 7/24-28/98 was do to the LCAV news release of 7/28/98. Apparently, the positive news was already discounted in the price activity of the stock.
The stock market is very efficient in establishing a correct valuation of a company. In bull phases valuations tend to be too high, and in bear markets the reverse is true in that the valuations are too low. In my opinion (IMO), the general market is in transition from the bull to bear phase. So look for a discount in the premiums people are willing to pay for a stock. In other words don't look for the explosive growth in prices of most stocks in this period of value adjustment.
I think LCA Visions will do all right in the long term, and if you are a buy and hold investor, you should do all right with this company. However, as with all investments, you should have an upward price goal and a downside stop loss. Investing in a small company is a risky business (as you have noted), so don't hesitate to get out of your position should the fundamentals change drastically for the worse.
These are all common sense rules, but easily violated if you do not have a disciplined attitude towards your investment philosophy; and this comes with training and experience.
I'm sure that you did not want to read all of this, but it doesn't hurt to review your investment philosophy.
Harry |
