Paracelsian Inc (PRLN) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Paracelsian Inc (PRLN)

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To: Jonathan Schonsheck who wrote (3794)	7/30/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: John H. Farro	of 4342

Great contest, Jonathan! I'm not sure we've totally busted a buck yet, but let's due the deuce. There are some potentially ambiguous scenarios which we should clarify in deciding the rules. 1) Suppose the price hovers around $1 for a few weeks on the absence of news. Then one day there is a sudden explosion in purchases and the price breaks $2. A blockbuster news story is released the following day. Which story is responsible for doing the deuce? Is it the recent announcement of the "Petition to Make Special" or is it the story that is released after it breaks $2. It is possible that word of good news could leak out to some people before a news release, although that hasn't happened yet. 2) Same scenario as #1 except the price slowly climbs to 1 7/8 over the next 3 weeks. Then there is a burst of purchases and the stock closes over 2 1/2. The following day PRLN announces a blockbusting story. 3) Same scenario as #2 but the stock finally closes at 2 1/32. The following day PRLN announces a mildly encouraging story. It may be impossible to determine what event actually pushes PRLN over $2 due to potential news leakage. I offer this completely arbitrary rule to settle ambiguous situations: Let the most recently released story previous to the stock going over $2 be declared the winner. This may result in the stock going up over $2 after a month without news, followed immediately by a blockbuster. The old news story would be declared the winner rather than the new news story. Does this idea sound ok to everyone? Does anyone have a better idea? How do we determine when the $2 barrier is broken? What if it trades above $2 during the day and closes below $2. I propose that the stock must trade above $2 for the last trade of the day A $2 closing trade won't win, but a 2 1/32 closing trade will win. What happens if we have overlapping events. For example, what happens if Scherer and PRLN simultaneously announce a world wide deal and one person picks PRLN to announce it and another picks Scherer to announce it? I propose we call it a tie with two winners. (Of course, if the stock closes above $2 then we are all winners.) My suggestion for a prize? How about a copy of an old Peter Sellers movie: The Mouse That Roared.

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