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Technology Stocks : The Roaring Twenty 1998

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To: SpecialK who wrote (145)7/31/1998 12:39:00 AM
From: White Shoes  Read Replies (1) of 338
 
Hi Ketan, I admit the MRVC decision was off the cuff but some feel that the rapid earnings growth is behind them. If I had more time I would dig into the prospects for their new products but I feel less comfortable in this one than I would somewhere else.

I think a NSCP purchase here is risky. Basically I think a 'fair value' for NSCP would probably be $20. But what would takeover value be? $60, 80? I know, thinking like that is the sign of rampant bullishness but as we know lesser companies than Netscape have been taken over for insane amounts. Therefore my reasoning is that it has a fair shot of climbing back to $40 (halfway between a reasonable valuation and what a hypothetical takeover price would be) in short order.

Of course if the technicals break down in the stock and in the broader markets (likely), then NSCP could see $20, so you only want it if you would be comfortable holding through a decline (i.e. if you like the company).

The best course of action is to take a nibble (1/3 of your full position) and add more later if the situation warrants.
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