Maurice, OT**Money**OT
...what the charts don't say, is how fast the money is moving
That's what the academics call money velocity, and you are right about its importance. Velocity can vary on a cyclical basis (Japan, nobody wants to borrow, just want to stuff the mattress) even though we may be experiencing a long-term secular increase (coins to notes to wire transfer to e-commerce). The Fed may be able to control supply, but there's little they can do about velocity. I think that is why they gave up trying to target specific growth rates in the M's like they did in the 70's and early 80's. If you think the market hangs on Greenspan's every word now, you should have seen how hung up on the monthly M's it was back then. Really seems better now with them just trying to target inflation. Problem is inflation is so hard to measure because of technical innovation, productivity, and substitution effects, among others. Government stats are next to worthless.
Anyway, no worries if Q.Com fails to hit $80 today. This quarter we begin the march toward 10% after-tax margins and $10 billion sales. Target date is now 2001 latest, earlier if W-CDMA-VW royalties become reality. $80 or $63 today won't make much difference at that time and will probably be very hard to read on Q.Com's log chart. So relax, take a sail, sip some sherry, play golf, and have a good weekend.
-Jim
if you know you are at A, and will eventually get to C, why worry about B? |
