I love Lucent.
Careful....
Stocks make/lose money not love, besides:
"To be in love is merely to be in a state of perceptual anesthesia."
However, I am concerned about the following:
1) Political turmoil and the financial collapse of Russia
2) China devaluing their currency and thus destabilizing the southeast region of the world once again
These two events are currently a real possibility. In fact, I believe that one of them will occur.
If I am correct, then what will happen to the evaluation of our beloved Lucent stock?
Will the world continue to build its telecommunications infrastructure during times of crises?
The short answer: (to your questions above IMO)
1. Possibly LU's price will suffer as the rest of the market will, by how much ? I have no idea. ("belove" the stock? see above.)
2. For Most countries, the answer is YES.
The long answer (lots of BS)
True indeed, and perhaps the one event that we will witness is the financial collapse of Russia, that is a real possibility. IMO if the zealots in this country succeed in bumping Clinton, there will be a "gap" of support for Yeltsin which may open the door for your possibility.
You may want t o take a look at these posts & thread:
#reply-5361271
#reply-5368604
Regarding the Chinese devaluating the Yuan and therefore de-stabilizing the entire Asian region, while a possibility it may not happen as easily, as there may be forces that will try to avert such event, again, Read the following:
#reply-5371037
#reply-5371042 **
#reply-5371105
#reply-5373600
How is this relevant to LU ?
In my mind all of the above is part of the risk that a company dealing in different parts of the world faces, unquestionably they are serious risks that I can not see how to avoid them 100%
However, for Lucent these risks are somehow diminished because Lucent deals in the building of necessary infrastructures for countries that in some instances have none.
These infrastructures are basic and sorely needed to "do business" in these countries.
Whether the specific countries are under a "boom" or a "bust" cycle to a degree, for LU is irrelevant because rain, snow or shine, the infrastructures need to be built. Will that affect the stock price? sure it will, but remember that such are "psychological" factors that affect the short term, the fundamental side will not be affected, so long no extreme measures are taken by the developing countries.
Such extreme measures could be "nationalization" of property and/or default in payment for "due bills"
Even then, by now, the most rabid Communist/Fascist/Tyrant/Whatever, has learned that taking that route is not the smartest thing to do as it may come back to haunt them when "times are good".
If LU were dealing in "selling fried chicken", In the cruise line vacation, or manufacturing _________ (fill in the blank), utilizing whatever country's cheap labor, or worse, selling a consumer product in those countries, the risk would be higher.
In addition, LU (as it has been already pointed out), goes into business relationships in which LU allows the local Supremo to benefit by marketing/dealing in specific services/products, in which LU becomes a "strategic" supplier of technology (pattent protected).
Whoever is doing the "Masterminding of LU Strategy" is a good Field Marshal with great world vision.
On top of that the stock price has NOT precisely "punished the moron that bought in".
So on balance, and in spite the real probability that the risks you mentioned, could take place, I believe that LU is one of the best positions to benefit from a reasonable risk/reward ratio. Perhaps, a better position would be to wait for such events to take place, an if the markets tank as a result, then start buying as a raving lunatic under the influence of a cult.
The only problem I see is that if such events do not take place or the effect on the market is minimal, then you will be sitting on the fence "waiting for just the perfect Nirvana".
If, however, there is a "total collapse of apocalyptic proportions", (to which I DO NOT subscribe), then I suggest:
* move to the middle of Montana/Texas/Alaska/Whatever,
* purchase all the available weaponry,
* purchase all canned beans available,
* raise the cross bones and skull black flag,
* join a cult, (this is optional).
* start playing Neanderthal man and fire to anything that moves,
* use LU certificates for starting a log fire for cooking.
* find a former LU engineer, and start all over again.
Just my opinion. |
