North American Vaccine Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine

NVX 1.410

-6.6%

Nov 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Don W Stone who wrote (404)	7/31/1998 4:12:00 PM
From: Don W Stone	of 507

George: i have been asked to make a few more comments about thestreet article. I hope your friend , jesse, understands that what i now say is not something that i would have expected him to pick up on nor do i hold him resposible for them. The joke though is that neither did Sturza or Margolies. I"ll just list some points that got my attention that were brought up by those interviewed. 1. I think Abbott would beg to differ with you regarding their experience in selling vaccines. They were in the vaccine business for many years. I also doubt that Connaught or Lederle would write them off on that point. 2. The market for whooping cough vaccines is beat up pretty badly hear by the bears. Based on the numbers here one could say we have a mere 65% conformance factor. I deduct that from the Margolies comments What's scaring them away? safety. The government talks about numbers a lot higher than that. 3. Dr Keith made the only correct statement re Hib. The numbers put forth by the bear don't add up. And this is hardly a "newer generation of whooping cough vaccines". It is about mixing two older vaccines together which is allowed by the FDA for the 5th shot only. It's the earlier shots of Hib that are the problem for the competition and that could be so for a very long time. And NVX does have such a component. Fact is they have one in phase III trials in Europe that is being used for all 5 shots. Now that is why Dr. Keith didn't express any concern here as the shorts would like him to have done. 4. I think the royalty number from ABT that is stated is at best misleading and of little value. OK it does say it is estimated. I call it a blue sky number, out of thin air , nothing more . 5. And as far as the "negative equity" issue goes and burn rate problems. I think that just the approvals in Europe recently make this argument impotent. This FDA approval obliderates it. Unfortunately, the shorts dictated the agenda for this report and as long as one realizes that it is what it is. This was not the fault of Jesse. When time is short you get to who you can get to and get the news out. I am sure the shorts were at his door step. The longs? Well he was lucky to do as well as he did I assume.

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