Trico Marine Services (TMAR) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR)

TMAR 22.41

0.0%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Robert T. Quasius who wrote (619)	7/31/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: JEFF A. KEHL	Read Replies (1) of 1153

Let's pretend for a minute that the analyst at Raymond James knows what he/she's talking about. Here's his/her predictions as posted previously: <<TMAR: RAYMOND JAMES decreased estimate for fiscal year ending 12/98 from $2.10 to $1.45 on 07/24/98 TMAR: RAYMOND JAMES decreased estimate for fiscal year ending 12/99 from $2.25 to $0.90 on 07/24/98 TMAR: RAYMOND JAMES increased estimate for fiscal year ending 12/98 from $1.45 to $1.50 on 07/28/98 TMAR: RAYMOND JAMES made new estimate for long term EPS growth of 17.00% per year on 07/28/98 >> Using their numbers and the PEG method of stock valuation I get the following as a target stock price: 1998 - $25.50 ($1.50 in earnings) 1999 - $15.30 ($.90 in earnings) 2000 - $34.85 ($2.05 in earnings) 2001 - $40.80 ($2.40 in earnings) I am filling in the 2000 and 2001 earnings by assuming 17% earnings growth from the $1.50 not from the .90. This seems reasonable to me since the lowest they've been in the past 5 quarters is .47 a share and the current problems with day rates in the gulf and oil prices should be worked out by 2000. So if I'm a Raymond James customer shouldn't I be buying TMAR like crazy? Almost 300% gain in 3 1/2 years. Where else except Yahoo can I get returns like that? Now let's assume Raymond James is wrong and that TMAR's managment has successfully negotiated this temporary slowdown by diversifying in the north sea, focusing on newer, better vessels, and a conservative drydocking strategy. Under this scenario they'll earn about $2 in 1998 and their earnings will not plummet in 1999 but continue to grow. This by the way is what the consensus of analysts listed on Yahoo said and have yet to revise. I'll use Raymond James 17% earnings growth rate. 1998 - $34.00 ($2.00 in earnings) 1999 - $39.78 ($2.34 in earnings) 2000 - $46.58 ($2.74 in earnings) 2001 - $54.40 ($3.20 in earnings) Have I done anything wrong in my estimates???

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