djane,
I don't really know enough about Stratus to comment on this potential deal. However, some thoughts:
1. ASND once was a pure ISP play, insofar as it offered only dial-in ports. Yes, the stock price skyrocketed under that scenario and yes, I've read analyst articles today to the effect that CSCC was dilutive to earnings. However, the reality is that CSCC -- read ATM -- ended up saving ASND's bacon when the ISPs ran out of money and/or were saturated with ports. Without CSCC, I think most would agree that ASND would be in the pits.
2. I don't know enough about SRA at this juncture to venture a guess at to whether history will repeat itself. However, while I think that ASND has in the past poorly managed its rapid growth (in terms of infrastructure requirements), Ejabat repeatedly has demonstrated a sharp and accurate insight into the direction that the company ought to be heading. In sum, I see a possible negative in terms of the imposition on infrastructure/mgmt resources, yet a possible positive in terms of the long term consequences.
3. Just a thought: I recall calling ASND back when CIEN crashed (when WCOM delayed its order) and suggesting that an acquisition of CIEN be considered. The idea was rejected, as it was stated that ASND had no need to get into light transmission. LU, of course, has its own DWDM technology. To the best of my knowledge, LU does not currently have what SRA offers. You can puzzle these pieces together in interesting ways.
Gary Korn |
