Tito, And I sold some shares at $33 to free up cash in my IRA for a Sept. disbursement. Guess I can't complain to much since my cost was $16.625 in Oct '96. I was thinking that AMAT would reverse down and bounce off the $29 with Sept and Oct bad months coming up. Time will show if I screwed up but AMAT is so hard to predict-It zig's when you think it should zagg and vice versa.
Threaders, following are some of my thoughts which I communicated to Teri. What are your reactions?
Teri, >> This is part of an effort to gather what capacity will be out there once everyone switches to 64MB.ÿ this seems key, imo<
When looking at the BTB data this year as compared against all years since 1991 they are terrible. However, the reverse side for next year, the third year of the Presidential election with a 25% GNP gain average, is the Semi's will not have to do much to show any improvement. When running percentage increases it will not take much to have tremendous gains with these low numbers.
IMO, it is just like the DW Bull Percentage, buy below the 30% oversold range and sell above the 70% overbought range. I bet Wall Street is just chomping at the bit when they see the slightest turnaround in the BTB. The tremendous gains will be huge. Just think of the gain AMAT will have when the BTB reaches its average. There will be a resulting explosion from the Asia countries trying to catch up with Intel, TXN, Mot, in meeting the Electronic explosion.
With Samsung working on the 256 RAM chip I believe that the 64 Ram chip will very be short lived. I believe Big Bucks stated earlier that new Electronic equipment becomes obsolete in 3 months. All of this IMO will lead to a bottleneck of companies trying to meet the demand of the consumer, ie, HDTV, Powerbooks, Digital phones, etc. I think some companies will get panicky when one company breaks lose. The SEMI, AMAT and others will be happily rewarded. HDTV I understand is do out this Christmas and games use tremendous RAM power.
I have to remind myself that emotions always wins out. Fear of being left behind is very real.
Any thoughts?
Just my opinions.
Paul V |
