Michael and James,
I looked at a bunch of Buffett'y stocks through the
Michael's "Buffett's spreadsheet". The results are
astonishing. First of all,
how I selected the stocks: ROE for 6-7 years >15%,
consistent earnings, debt/equity < .40. I don't claim
that I got them all, because I started with my own list
and not a mechanical screen. I will cite the low
conservative) predicted return.
If you want to suggest any additional companies,
please let me know.
So now for results:
The highest return is: ORCL! 26%. Note that this uses
low PE of 29. This is hardly surprising, but interesting
anyway.
The second highest return is XXX 23%
Sorry, it's a small-mid-cap that me and my friends
want to buy. I'll let you guys know later. :-)
The third highest return is remarkable: KO 18%
This may partially explain why Buffett won't sell KO.
The return may be unatainable, because it uses 50% ROE
and high PE numbers.
Other interesting data: SUP, ADBE, LLTC, LDL,
UM, APCC, MSFT and INTC
are all in 14-15% return area. The interesting part is
that MSFT and INTC fall there, even though they are
thought expensive.
The not so remarkable result is that AMAT
is projected to return 5%. But then AMAT is a cyclical stock.
Conclusion? If you believe in ORCL's future - buy ORCL.
Otherwise, load with a selection of 14-15% returners
or wait for deeper correction.
Jurgis |
