North American Vaccine Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine

NVX 1.410

-6.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Cacaito who wrote (405)	8/1/1998 8:23:00 AM
From: Don W Stone	Read Replies (1) of 507

Cacaito: Another good post as I would expect from you. Thanks You are right on about Abbott. Those who know what they are talking about to include the two major competitors would not share the views expressed in this article re Abbotts ability to market CERTIVA. As was said to me by one who knows something about this market: " such statements are ludicrous and hardly worth printing". You said it : " Abbott's Ross is the best marketing machine in the pediatric field." I'll add to your comment regarding "Survanta" which as you say has met with considerable success. I was told recently by a reliable source that Abbott brought Survanta to the market a year late, faced two tough competitors, and a year or so later had 96% of the market. Abbott has a 500 man salesforce calling on pedatricians. The nearest competitor has less than 150 salesmen. The expectations of those closes to the situation are that Abbott will dominate the pediatric vaccine market. It is just a matter of time. As you point out in your mention of the Columbia Health Care business that Abbott recently got, I think we will be hearing about some significant marketing successes with CERTIVA relatively soon, certainly well before year end. You made some very good comments on the use of DTaP-Hib shot as the fourth shot that the competitors apparently have a temporary edge on. This is one shot in a five shot series. The choice isn't always recommended and certainly isn't always taken as the shorts would like us to believe. I have heard that the actual use of this shot will amount to less than 7% of the market for the DTaP vaccines. It will actually have less impact on NVX/Abbott's share. I must say when a short tell us "do the math" watch out. That is what Mike Margolies of Avalon research asked us to do. Well Mike better get back and do some research before he gets out his calculator. All of his numbers that he used for input are off the wall, grossly inaccurate. Although take his 20% of the right number and one mite have "enough to sustain NVX". At this point he is to commited to being a bear so they won't change his position anyway . :-}

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