"What am I going to do with the money that I get from the tender?"
Well, since I am buying a new house, I need to keep the cash for awhile, until October at least, or until my current house sells and closes. It seems to me probably prudent to do that anyway, so I am actually glad to have the external contraints which will force me to be disciplined. I suspect that we may see some wonderful buying opportunities sometime in Nov--the election, the Clinton mountain out of a molehole fiasco, Asian uncertainties, lower corporate profits over the next couple of quarters, then in December, the next leg of Japanese Big Bang (for some sketchy details, go to the Asian thread, which I have seen you post on a couple of times, though it isn't very clear to me yet what it entails exactly aside from hypothetically unlocking a huge amount of money, though not as huge if the yen keeps dropping)--all of these things make me think that now isn't quite the time to buy equities, but the above factors combined with tax selling will create some serious values. I'm looking at some ECM companies (JBL and FLEXF, especially), some semi equipment companies (ASYT and TER, and AMAT if it gets back to the mid-20s), some drive companies (QNTM and SEG if they keep getting hammered, perhaps even RDRT if it looks like they will survive for another couple of years, and MTIC in storage systems which could be a winner if they get their FC system out the door later this month as they have said). I already have positions in some of the above (occasionally pretty large ones, unfortunately, like with QNTM and SEG, smaller ones in JBL and ASYT).
That said, my record of the past 9 months is as bad as it was good the previous couple of years. Hot I'm not.
Best wishes,
Sam |
