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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (22926)	8/1/1998 9:02:00 AM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Jim, do you believe that history repeats itself? Here is something most interesting! The question is is this a coincidence? (These are closing prices) 7/17/98 SPX topped at 367 7/20/98(I trade day difference) the SPX topped at 1184 10/11/90 the SPX bottomed at 295 for a 72 point or 19.6% correction. If we apply the same %age to now (if it fell 19.6% then, why can't it fall that much now....if not more)we come up with a bottom around 952 on the SPX. Going further and drawing Fibonacci Retracement (I know you are not into TA, but ....)from the low of 10/11/98 to the high on 7/20/98, the first level of support is 982 (pretty close isn't it...is this a coincidence?) Now applying the same to the DOW and NASD: 7/17/90 DOW tops at 2999.70 10/11/90 DOW bottoms at 2365.10 -634 points or 21.2% 7/17/98 DOW tops at 9337 so if we apply the %age of 21.2%, we get the POSSIBILITY of -1979 points or 7357 bottom on the DOW. 7/17/90 NASD tops at 470 10/11/90 NASD bottoms at 322 -148 points or 31.5% 7/17/98 NASD tops at 2014 so if we apply the %age of 31.5%, we get the POSSIBILITY of -634 points or 1380 bottom on the NASD. The 7/17/90 vs 7/17/98 dates are spooky! :-) Monty

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