Trico Marine Services (TMAR) Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR)

TMAR 22.41

0.0%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: JZGalt who wrote (629)	8/1/1998 9:55:00 AM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (1) of 1153

Galt, Jeff: <<Third, will there be any drop off in oil prices which will further screw up the supply demand picture.>> probably not much below this point. the largest single use of oil is power generation (not gasloine consumption as many assume). when oil falls below $14 a barrel (using light sweet crude price as a bench mark) it becomes as cost equivalent to use in many power generation plants as gas (and in some less costly). at $12 to 13, power generators stock up on cheap fuel; so oil falling much below this level would probably prompt significant contract stockpiling for future consumption. most power plants have factoring values which switch between gas and oil relative to "cubic burn price" (the amount of oil needed to power X for T time at Y price versus the amount of gas needed to do the same - oil is also less costly to store/deliver in many places than gas for power generation. this is already happening. many power plants in those places where the switch is meaningful (at $14 oil) are switching to oil. $12, $13, $14 is an "automatic" bottom. the only factor that would cause it to fall below $12 is if oil dumping began to occur in the market place. this hasn't been seen to date. it's possible dumping would occur if the cash strapped arabs began to panic; this is very unlikely though. what does the switch from oil to gas say about the 70% gas embedded US gulf? not much. gas use has been increasing at a more rapid pace than oil consumption in nearly all markets around the globe. 60% of the world population still has "inadequate" housing relative to US and European standards. OT: weird stuff: caught the last part of a television show about a book written by a Jewish journalist entitled "Bible Code". this jewish guy goes through the mathematical codes (the Hebrew language is both a numbering system and a language) in the Bible and states that past world events were encoded there, giving about 50 uncanny examples. he says the words "nuclear holocaust year 2000 and 2006" are also encloded! heck this would bring up the price of oil!! they had a few rabbis on their scoffing. sounded really interesting to me. BUY the way, more bought TMAR at $11 around here (oil studs as it were). I'll commit a significant amount of my personal cash when I get the green.

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