Hi Monty; I'm not real strong on that history repeats itself
phrase, I think it's over worked. It can always be true to some
extent, but if anything is true about it, then most disasters take
us by surprise would be the most true.
On the other side, things do happen that don't have any real
history to base them on, and these things can mess up any kind
of time line. We went into future shock in the mid 80s and
I doubt many people have dealt with tath. There are still the
hangers on that will tell you there is nothing new under the sun,
but believe me they must be asleep.
I think the more we stretch out time looking back at patterns
the more we can read in all sorts of stuff that can be both
good or bad. To me TA loses it's effectiveness as it goes back
in time. While I wont argue with what I don't understand,
( wave patterns ) as I do feel they may be valid, but only
if one does not try to find some holy grail that always repeats
itself year after year, over x amount of time
as I'm sure they ( wave patterns ) also evolve, and I don't
think I need to be an expert to know that.
How many mutual funds to stock issues did we have in 1990,
to what we have now ? I have no idea but I bet that ratio
has changed very dramatically.
The individual investor ( most of them ) does not actually
act in any kind of concert with the market swings we see today.
I think we have more of a war ( competition )among funds, than
stocks, and this is putting a whole new face on the stock
market.
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Jim
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