Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Khalid R. Khan who wrote (26856)	8/1/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Khalid R. Khan.....welcome aboard o' Sage One from Yahoo-Land... Folks; get prepared.....Mr. Khan will tell it like it is. Before anyone gets started on this ''newbie'' ; let me add my endorsement (for the 2 cents its worth) that this guy has a track record that HAS been proven over time of interpreting the condition of the patch and making some great calls & analysis. Add this guy to your ''Bookmark'' list. (you too 'fancypants' - you know who you are). Khalid; I disagree, respectfully so; but it is good to have someone with a little wit and intelligence to add a little balance here. I agree that overall in the 'Patch; a lot more stocks are more likely to go lower rather than higher - short term. However I do think that on a selective, individual company basis - this is 'THE" time to be buying here. If one is quick and observant - there are some great opportunities here. DRQ just had a great earnings release and yesterday had a $1 3/8 -- 8%+ selloff to a new 52 week low, triggering an over-reaction selloff. We have a lot of stocks that are near 52 week lows and/or near mathematical borders (your power of tens theory here- Khalid) like $10 or $20 etc. where stop limits and psychological price points can be taken out - which lead to an over-reaction sell off. GW is a good example. This stock has been in a trading range of $2 1/8 low bid to $3 high ask over the last 2 weeks. Yesterday it established a new 52 week low closing at $2. This stock as well presents a great buying opportunity ! GW just released earnings with good revenue growth, Rig utilization within 5% of last year, but it had disappointing year over year earnings comparisons. When I read this - I anticipated a new low, as the land drillers are the last rung on the Oil Patch ladder... I expected people to bail out of GW off this news - but saw a bright spot in that GW acknowledged that they are in a strong cash position to ride out any storms, this = buying opp ! Gw did selloff to $2 and this is a nice buy as a 1/4 point move is a 25% profit ! also, a drop to $1 1/2 does not take a lot to average down to $1 3/4 and the ability to recoup cost basis on these small moves can not be ignored. At under $5 - it can not be shorted...and at $2 it will attract an entire new set of ''penny-stock'' bottom fishers. Your point on EVI's insider selling is right on the money ! Insider selling or buying in these present market conditions can not be ignored and should be used as a PRIMARY indicator to sell or buy. The dirty deed done by DLJ is also a wake up call on analyst games. I especially like to read the disclosures to see if an analyst's firm has done any work for the company in question. Neutral recommendations obviously carry a lot more weight. Where we disagree perhaps, is now I am looking for big one day moves on EVI to buy it ! EVI is one of the best run and most fundamentally solid companies in the sector - this situation has led or will continue to lead to an over-reaction and I want to be there when it happens... FLC is quite another story. They were one of my favorites - huge deepwater capacity coming online soon, tremendous EPS growth going forward - but big insider selling and tanking big time. Their high debt status is not favorable when compared to say DO & the lower dayrates really affect them and they can go $2-$4 lower very easilly here. Beyond that area - FLC is at the top of my buy list. Bottom line....follow the money. On owning the overall market at these prices; again I respectfully disagree. I want to buy the oilpatch selectively TODAY and the overall market (CSCO MSFT ...) TOMORROW ! - hopefully at DOW 7000 - 7500 levels... Khalid...PS: what about SDC here without having any GOM exposure and corresponding dayrate softness - has the baby been thrown out with the bathwater ? 34% profit margins and NO DEBT - my kind of company here... if only PTEN would blow off to about $5 - I'll start on the land drillers.

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