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Gold/Mining/Energy : MOSAID Technologies Inc.

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To: Serge Collins who wrote (96)	8/1/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: Praxis	Read Replies (1) of 219

On the contrary the sector is growing rapidly, according to the Gartner Group and KPMG, the sector is growing at a rate of approx.78%/yr. The problem is overcapacity, too many companies plowed $ into building multi-billion $ fabs without realizing that the sum total of capacity would far outstretch the demand for such commoditized products such as DRAM. Products like ECC SDRAM etc.(to which MSD has their 256MB board on spec) have experienced significant demand pressures and DRAM fabs are trying to convert over to meet demand on this side. The problems in Asia notwithstanding this industry has and will always be cyclical but from all data I have, the turnaround should start in the beginning of 99. Semi-conductor industry operates on a 3 yr. cycle, we are in the last stages of the downturn and should start to see some improvement starting next yr. This whole industry has been in a downturn since the end of 1995, thus companies like MOT and AMAT have been hit hard in the last few years. Incidentally, MSD is the undisputed leader in memory testing devices and therefore could also be an attractive takeover target, especially now considering the weakness in the C$.

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