[August Options OI]
I'd decided to monitor the options dynamics for TDFX. We still have
15 trading days till August expiration, so at the moment the OI
numbers are of little significance, but still:
Strike Calls OI Puts OI
12.5 29 0
15 603 771
17.5 1431 347
20 1031 268
22.5 412 22
25 349 5
TDFX quote 14-5/16
Options writers' optimal expiration 17.5
Avg daily volume 630,000 shares
"Max pain" hypothesis claims that a trendless stock will close at the
levels minimizing the option writers payouts. FWIW, current options
data suggests an upwards price bias while TDFX stays below 17.5.
Of course, we are too far from expiration for this bias to be
meaningful, and all other caveats (including the validity of the
hypothesis itself) apply. OTOH, the size of OI is fairly significant
- over 3000 calls above 17.5, suggesting serious downward bias if
TDFX goes above this level. Similarly, some would consider put/call
ratio at 15 level as bullish.
If somebody finds this info useful, I'll post an update next week. |
