The Stock for 1999(Polymedica)PLMD(Medical Supply Co.) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : The Stock for 1999(Polymedica)PLMD(Medical Supply Co.)

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To: Arthur Radley who wrote (1625)	8/1/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: Arthur Radley	Read Replies (1) of 3414

Off Topic: For you long term readers of this thread, you know that about two months ago I moved most of my 401K money into a guaranteed fund and moved to cash with many of my regular stock accounts. This action was taken because of my general concern for the direction of the market. I haven't reduced my holdings in PM and as mentioned, I have recently added to my position. What I have to say, doesn't apply to PM as I think it will weather the storm that I see ahead for the overall market. It is hard to fault a stock showing the growth it is and trading at less than 2X book value. The following is strictly my opinion and should be taken by all readers for its face value. I have no crystal ball and do not recommend that anyone take the course of action that I have undertaken with my accounts. Each individual's situation is unique and I would be remiss to suggest that your situation should mirror my undertakings. With that disclaimer stated, I have GRAVE concerns about the near term stability of the overall market. It is my belief that we are in for a major correction....what percent I don't know. However, if I had to project one I would say in the order of 15-20%. This would put us in for a correction on the DJIA of about 1500-1800 points. The bottom line is that the internal action in the market is horrendous and the DJIA and NASD averages have IMO masked what is actually going on with the TOTAL market. I am not a TA person and as indicated before, I only look at certain technical features to arrive at my decision as to the direction of the market. Currently we have a political issue that is added to the mix and I don't think that the next two weeks will bring a relief, but actually add to the negative for the market. My biggest concern is what I see in the advance/decline ratio of stocks. If you look at the current issue(today) of Barron's you will see a FULL page of new Highs and LOWs ....and folks it ain't pretty when you see the new lows. This tells me that the smart money for the first time in a long long time isn't buying on the dips. In the past, when we had a dip the money would flow in after a day or two of selling. This isn't happening now. Another factor is the warnings that some of the major companies are stating for the coming quarters. This has now moved beyond the companies with the Asian exposure. As for Asian, it is still a major problem and we haven't seen the end of that one. As for an example of what I say about the averages give us false readings, just one example is the fact that with the S&P average for the year, 5 companies reflect 33% of the total gain for this average. Only 5 companies. With my doom and gloom scenario, I have taken the following course of action over the weekend and hope to have it consumated by early next week. I'm moving a good percentage(excluding PM)of my money into the RYDEX URSA fund. You latin speakers know what ursa means. This fund has a high entry level and I would mention another fund that would give the same downside protection in a bear market and that it the Prudent Bear fund run by a fellow named Tice in Dallas. Real gamblers could take a position with some of the put option contracts but this will give only a limited time frame and what I see ahead could run longer than these contracts time frames. Enough said and please remember this is only my OPINION. I offer this because we have all offered reasonable advise here on the thread and that is what is so good about the contributors to the thread.

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