Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Sonki who wrote (13563)	8/1/1998 6:49:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (2) of 42787

I am seeing MSFT beginning to break down that can send it past its present support. I will be watching this one closely tomorrow. Actually, I do not see many stocks still in good technical condition. The ones that are in good condition are the market leaders that have not broken down yet and stocks like IBM. INTC IMO is not a good choice. A failed breakout is a disappointment to the players in the stock. You may want to continue to watch this stock. But I would not recommend it at this point in time as a good play for the upcoming week. It looks like the only plays I can see are the short trades in stocks demonstrating short term forward momentum right now. Some of them bounced off of their 50 day MA and have news helping extend their bounce. CMGI is an example of this. Then there is IBM which did break out and demonstrated strength doing this. I am remaining with my position on CMGI as being only a very short term momentum play, essentially a continuation of a bounce. The technicals and the overall market sentiment are against a trend reversal. This is indeed a different market and until it changes, traders will have to modify their rules and expectations to an extent in order to remain profitable and protect themselves form downside risk. Playing the bounces off of the 50 day EMA is good during a strong and robust bull market, but that is not what we have here. IMO the risks are substantially greater in making such a play in this market. So the idea here is to play the stocks in action that have established and demonstrated short term momentum. Now if the market not only pops but continues a move up, then look to those stocks that are still in technically good condition but have been in a holding pattern. I do not mean breakdown and a fall down to its 50 day EMA. That is not a "holding pattern". It is at the very least a short term breakdown for many of these stocks that have moved to their 50 day EMA. Do not compramise good technicals for a stock. Those stocks that begin to break out and have positive price action may make for good plays if a rally was to get underway. As far as the drugs go, you are right that they are also very weak. In my attempt as identifying industries I was going by past Briefing Stock Tickers in what showed up as leadership during up days in the market. I had the chance only to begin to check the validity of the results it gave me. I should of been more careful. Later this weekend, I will be looking through industry graphs. This should provide me with a more useful picture. What industries have we seen represented by particular stocks that have show strength over the past couple weeks on up days? Bob Graham

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