Thanks for the response Michael about the Semi's, but I total disagree with you. First I think KLIC will be a real winner. Probably up 200% in 2 years. From what I've read their products are essential and I think it is like a person needing a new car. When someone is having tough times they try to keep that car just a couple more years, or put a few thousand more miles on it but eventually they have to break down and get a car. Same with KLIC's equipment, eventually these companies will have to update their products. It will be easier when the industry is making money, but regardless they will will have to update. (by the way if I'm wrong please correct me, it will save me some heartache). After a secondary not too long ago @ 30 KLIC has a perfect balance sheet (no or little long term debt, 100 mil in cash), which will allow them to ride out this storm. In 1996 KLIC bottomed at 1.2 times book value. That is right where we are today.
I also like LSI. They are spending alot on R&D and are still able to make money during crappy times. I'm still gathering info on their recent purchase but it is accretive next year, and the addition of almost 750 million in Revs they should warrant a higher multiple, I think it is a doubler(always hoping fo more) in 18 mos. on the outside.
And ATMEL. Well you know ATMEL, but their recent restructuring is to add 30 million a quarter (1.25 eps a year) and that is with revenues staying constant.
No matter what anyone says chips will continue to be more engrained in everything we do as stereos, and cars, and clocks, and ovens, and computers, and telephones and on and on and on etc get more complicated. There will only be a need for chips to do more not less as the world expands. More chips, not less.
I like the Semi's here because you and everyone else in the world hates them. The blood is in the streets. Granted it will be a slow recovery, but I'll write calls as I wait.
In a world of full disclosure, let me fully disclose. I own 6000 share of LSI @ 17 3/8 (I've lower my cost basis by writing covered calls) 5000 shares of KLIC at 14 3/4, and I'm going to buy 2500 more next week, and 5000 shares of ATML at 14 (that one hurts).
Onto Biotechs, one that might should be considered is CHIR. It has done nothing for a number of years, and I understand they have a good pipeline. One of these days it will take off. |
