Here's why I think CUBE's stock has done poorly over the past couple of years:
1. A couple of years ago it was way overvalued (kinda like the current Internet stocks), based on its growth rate and the lead CUBE had in digital video - nobody else really was doing it yet. That inspired a mini-mania. CUBE was not as multidimensional as it is now. Since then it has returned to a more realistic valuation (actually became undervalued, in my opinion).
2. The market as of late has been dominated by sheep (i.e. momentum investors). Therefore, people buy stocks that have gone up for that reason alone, causing them to go up even further. In the same way, stocks that have gone down have been dumped for that reason alone, causing them to go down further. (CUBE has been in the latter category for some time.) That's why the current market is so polarized, with wildly overvalued stocks like YHOO and Amazon.com and then apparent bargains like CUBE and REAL. I'm hoping that valuation comes into vogue again some day.
3. CUBE finds itself in one of the least fashionable sectors lately, i.e. small-/mid-cap, high technology companies. Again, I'm hoping that the fashion changes back. I suspect it will after the big players have bought their fill. Then we'll hear more positive spin.
4. Finally, fear about SE Asia has hurt CUBE, despite the fact that CUBE continues to perform well in revenues and earnings. When Asia regains its health, I think CUBE will do even better.
Ray |
