Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: P.Prazeres who wrote (22993)	8/2/1998 12:16:00 AM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)	Read Replies (1) of 94695

PPrazeres, well I agree, it of course will be extremely difficult to pinpoint when and if a crash will occur. But I really think there is a good possiblity IMO. The reason? Well, it all boils down to greed and fear and market leadership and behavior of crowds. If you look at this market in a pure psychological manner anything is possible. The market has now IMO lost its leaders (more and more big caps that will come out with earnings warnings now and 3rd quarter). A market mania crowd needs a leader to keep the bull moving. When the leaders retreat, the crowd scrambles loses direction and panics. The emotions of fear and panic are so much greater on the downside and that is why such huge amounts of selling can happen. I can see this market trading on emotion now. The good GDP number comes out and we get a decline. Just like in Oct97 when good earnings reports where coming out and stocks were selling off on the news... Tom

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