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Technology Stocks : General Magic

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To: Kurt Goebel who wrote (3117)8/2/1998 2:51:00 AM
From: Ray Rueb  Read Replies (3) of 10081
 
How much is GMGC really worth?

OK, I'm in trouble with my position...
I don't want to panic dump.

I believe we will see a panic selling induced gap down
on Monday to low 7's or high 6's.
I don't want to sell into that, that's panic and stupid.

I really want to get out of this bath, I'm not having fun.
I'd like to get out using a plan...

So, if I'm going to go through the pain, and it will be painful,
of raising the cash to maintain my position...
I want to know what is really on the other side;
how much is GMGC really worth:
IF Portico doesn't hit any major snags...
IF GMGC fine tunes its resellers so they do a better job...
IF GMGC signs up 25,000 subscribers
IF GMGC signs up 50,000 subscribers
IF GMGC signs up 100,000 subscribers

Now, no gut feelings or guessing, I can do that on my own...
I want to hear some cold numbers of the form
"25,000 subscribers at an average of x dollars revenue per month
gives a gross revenue of y minus the average expenses of z per month
giving a probable net income of xx per year
and using a PE of yy, make GMGC worth zz."

I know we've done this before, but I really want to review it again.

BTW: if anyone out there can add other facts,
I'd like to see some substantive discussions on this board again.

Good luck to all for the upcoming week
Ray
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