In addition to all the factors mentioned here for the huge Friday drop (momentum, buyout-followers, herd, slow-digestion-history, buying a haystack for a needle, short-termers, market-watch-dumpers and slow-summer Friday-selloff), I think SRA may be sold for higher than 800M ... may be for 1-1.2B, since they have been doing comparison shopping for the best rates for some time as reported earlier. Since the SJM newspaper only reported 800M as the takeout price, there was a more pronounced drop in ASND, because people in the know perhaps knew that its definitely more than 800M, and acted proactively on Friday itself, instead of waiting till Monday's revealation, imho!
Moreover, even with the 1.2B baggage on its back, ASND is as sexy as
ever for LU to marry her ... as LU would simply consider that as an added value diamond/jewel on the bride ... rather than perceiving it as a lump of fat ... because it isn't: First of all, at $40 a share for Stratus, looking at the technology leadership boost which ASND will receive because of the synergistic effects of the SRA integration due to its embedded technology value, available talent, name recognition, and renewed aggressive emphasis on fault tolerance technology in the industry, SRA would be a steal. Moreover, SRA itself was in a process of getting rid of some of its fat-globules by shedding 350 jobs, it had declared. So, there will be even much lesser dirty work leftover for ASND to do after the acquisition. And with all eyes focused towards LU in the end, it will be easier for ASND executives to handle some leftover dirty work efficiently and effectively. I heard that with Ma-Bells' work-force reduction in the past, and recently many more managers accepting retirement packages than T thought, they are/were in a technical skill shortage and hired away a lot of engineers back from LU with a premium. LU finding itself in a severe need of technical talent, and responding appropriately (hiring contractors aggressively, 30-40% pay-hikes to nearby software engineers who are willing to jump-ship from other corporations in central, northern NJ etc.) as the business is booming or rather exploding! After, 10/01, I think LU acquisition spree will start ... a firedrill of acquisitions - the likes of which the industry may never have seen! ASND will be just a small (10-11B for a 117B LU) fish in that binge! Thus, in summary, the triple-way marriage scenario looks like this: The He-ASND marries a trimmed-down, low-reverse-dowry ($40 for a $60 high SRA) attractive bride first, performs some plastic-surgery on the newly married bride to get rid of some fat-globules, completely merges with her :-) , then goes to the sex-change operation himself, emerges as a She-ASND from the clinic, and the She-ASND then becomes an attractive bride for LU to enjoy! :-)
At the end, for your further enjoyment:
Joe-off-the-street: "Hey man, I'm scared ... LU may drop ASND ... the deal may be canceled!"
Smarty-in-the-know: Canceled ? Nuts !
Joe: Nuts? Me? you mean me nuts? Why?
Smarty: Hey, just read the anagram of "Ascend Lucent" --> "Canceled Nuts" Cheers buddy!
Hi Tim:
- nice to see you here ... folks miss you on NEWZ thread ... did you capture that 67% rise on Friday? ... expected to gap-open on Monday.
regards to all,
-/Sonny. |
