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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (23039)8/2/1998 3:18:00 PM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
David, great post, have a couple thoughts about it too...

>But take a look at the '87 chart, and notice that prices didn't just >collapse from the peak. After the initial 10 % decline from the peak, >you'll notice that prices rallied back about 7%, then the crash >ensued.

I have looked at the 87 prices like a thousand times by now. What concerns me though is that all of the gurus and others are becoming overconfident about the timing of when this crash will happen when it may be happening as we speak and catch them off guard when they are hoping for a strong snap back rally. This market will do whatever it wants to and do it in a way that catches people off guard.

But specifically with regard to your comments on the 87 pattern. On the 87 pattern you can see what looks like the letter W. After the letter is completed the market falls in exhuastion. I kind of see a similar thing now. Early May98 is where the W starts and July 20 is where the W ends. And what do you know, after it ends the market falls VERY steeply just like in 87. So it very well may be we are days instead of weeks away from the BK.

But I also favor the other arguments for a bounce off 200DMA as we all know the market cannot only go down in a straight line...or can it?

tc
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