<<A crash day 55 calendar days from the peak would have the market in free fall by Sept. 15th, with 790 SPX a minimum target. We'll see.>>
Glad to see the reappearance of the 55 day rule on this thread. I myself believe the day will be Sept. 22, if it is to happen at all. History doesn't repeat itself . . . but there are always echos.
Not being as skilled in the technical arts as most people here, I resort to a certain bigpicturearianism. . . .
I myself am willing to accept that, in an environment where the U.S. is undisputed king of the hill and no real threats (?) loom on the horizon, and economic growth is stimulated not so much by cyclical upswings in old industries as by birthing pangs of new ones, the U.S. equities markets are fairly valued, in light of a clear shift in fundamental sentiment towards devaluing risk in the short-term.
This leads me to suspect, if not believe, that the markets will find a new way, as they always do, to extract capital from weak positions.
My scenario du jour has the markets in a trading range around fair value (call it the July highs in the indecis if you want) for an INDEFINITE period (years?) as corporate profits continue to climb. I envision a rotating market, where individual issues as well as market sectors would sell off and then recover; but the broader markets would remain in a range.
I can see a fairly broad range here, but the important concept would be lack of long-term trend. If corporate profits increase, this would amount to a 'silent' bear market, and would extract lots of $$$ from anyone placing bets on a long-term trend.
I do appreciate all the technical reads on this thread; together they are useful as a way to peer into the ultimate reality at the heart of things.
Good luck to all! |
