Hi Ram,
A GREAT! post, thanks. Yes, it sure is tough to make sound investment decisions without all the pieces. I guess that's why SA shares are so undervalued. And I acknowledge the correctness of your comment on John Disney and my Rangy article we wrote. It did trouble me not being able to get all of the financial info on rangy off the net.
Any idea how much cash rangy has on hand now? I'm pretty sure their loan to RR was for 20 mil. Regarding Rangy's method of paying back that loan, its hard telling how they will choose to do so. I got the impression from an unposted RR slideshow (I'll send it to ya if you like) that rangy had sold all it's Harmony shares, and was concentrating on only keeping the Durban shares. I'm guessing that with the addition of Crown, they think Durban is a better asset than Harmony for the bucks spent. All these Harmony shares certainly would have raised some cash, and add to this the US 15 Million or so rangy will get for the diamonds, they may not be too far off from paying this right now if needed.
Have you had a chance to really crunch RR's website numbers? They seem VERY impressive to me. By this November, 270,000 ounces at $210, plus 50,000 below $130 sometime next Spring. This looks like $40 million a year, plus Morila looking very impressive. Add to this Loulo at $205 assuming the POG improves a bit, and RR is going to be making HUGE money. Even if gold stays where it is, given some time, it looks to me that these cheap surface mines of RR are the way to go.
There may be more leverage in DD or Harmony, but there is certainly more downside risk to a stock that looses money with a low POG.
Thoughts?
Thanks again for the post. We should pester the RR site to include some more rangy info, or get rangy to create their own site.
PB |
