>But the behavior of this market is unlike many with the most direct comparison I can think of being d-ram.
So, would you buy Micron? Didn't think so.
>That the DD industry has delivered a staggering 60% per year performance improvement to its market while reducing the cost of storage by factors of 30% overall in the last three years is an amazing achievement IMO.
The only important benchmark should be that return on invested capital be higher than the cost of capital. For the data storage industry, this just ain't so.
>My candidate is Seagate with substantial trimming now under their belt (10% world-wide staff reductions), a new low-cost drive announcement for the so-called sub-zero PC market, a significant regain of market share in the high end, an unreported improvement in head yields, a potential spin off of the software holdings, and a change in helmsmanship may make it the best candidate for the recovery that will inevitably occur.
OTOH, SEG still is the most bloated employee-wise, hasn't managed to grow the top line, can't stop the bleeding on desktop, facing tremendous pressures on the high-end segment which they once owned, and is not even in the running for time to market. Software is small, barely profitable, and what questionable growth it has comes from acquisitions, not internal.
Pull up the longest chart of SEG you can find. If you timing is impeccable, you may take home a huge winner. If not, well, the stock was around 20... in 1987. |
