Rob, I'd accept your theory that Bezos is talking AMZN's price down,
but only if some of the analysts had reacted nagatively to the results announcement, and the conference call. Instead, Benjamin kept his rating as "buy" (and his price target of $45!), and DLJ set a price target of $165, and recently another broker initiated coverage with a buy. Since Bezos couldn't talk the Street down, why should we believe that all fluff has been wrung out of AMZN? Don't get me wrong, I'm bearish on AMZN's valuation, business model, financial (debt) structure and a few other things, but I'm just saying the current events don't have the usual profile of both management and the Street working to move the price lower.
My take is that the Street likes the 110 level for AMZN right now,
based on technical price action only. However, I'll be real surprised if AMZN doesn't come into some real selling pressure over the next couple of weeks. I just think at this price, and given the uncertainty in the market in general, we'll see some selling by insiders (mainly those that have filed already), employees exercising options, and some institutions (hedge fund or not), lightening up their positions. There's also another "event" on the horizon: the filing of the 10-Q, because the quarterly filing will have to go a little deeper into various aspects of recent acquisitions, and provide more detail on AMZN's financials than were offered in the recent earnings announcement. |
