Funny..
QC analysis requires synthesis of disparate information and a fairly strong degree of intellectual fortitude. When Tero brags about GSM's gains in China, he neglects to discuss ERICY's migration plans to W-CDMA. People quickly forget Irwin's comment, from the Q3 conference call, when he quipped that "the war had been won" and that CDMA was the air-interface of the future. Despite all evidence to the contrary, people seem to believe that QC's IPR will (a) vanish, (b) somehow get circumvented or (c) just don't matter for some reason.
Ericsson MAY (and I repeat) MAY be winning the battle for market share in China, but is losing the air-interface war. ETSI and DoCoMo both acknowledge that QC's IPR is fundamental to W-CDMA, as does Lucent/Phillips (see the announced licensing agreement). Moreover, as I have said, ad nauseum, if ERICY didn't believe that QC's IPR was fundamental, there wouldn't even be a 3G debate--Ericsson would have simply moved to a CDMA air-interface and told QC to "meet it in court".
So, what's the point? All this belaboring of GSM here and IS-95 there will likely become far less relevant as digital technologies converge over the next two-to-three years. In the interim, ERICY wants its customer list to be as long as possible because the incumbent has a substantial advantage...that having been said, we really should understand the long-term dynamic and its implication for royalties and earnings.
Best regards,
Gregg |
