Article from Business Wire confirms what we already knew - ILECs have given up on broadband/fiber-to-the-curb.
Business Wire - August 03, 1998 08:25
SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 3, 1998--Shipments of telephone
network access equipment will soar from 1997 market sales of $2 billion to $4.2 billion
in 2001, according to a new report issued by ryan hankin kent, inc. The report, "Loop
Access Systems: Technology and Markets," predicts that growth in demand for access
equipment will initially be driven by deployments of narrowband systems, with mass
deployment of broadband xDSL systems beginning in 2000.
The report identifies xDSL, particularly ADSL, as the industry's next-generation
technology for data and Internet access. Driven by explosive growth of Internet access
subscribers and competitive deployment of cable modems, ADSL has progressed
through trials in 1997 with xDSL deployment projected to reach 49,000 lines by the
end of 1998. The UAWG (Universal ADSL Working Group) initiative to develop a
splitterless ADSL specification will slow ADSL deployment in 1998 but accelerate it in
1999 and beyond. According to Claude Romans, senior analyst, "Because xDSL can
provide a delivery platform for high-speed data, as well as future video services, we
expect deployment to pick up significantly as more products become available in the
market and standards are finally stable."
In the "bottom's up" approach that forms the basis of the forecast RHK analysts
evaluated each carrier's system architecture and rate of deployment for loop access
systems. RHK forecasts that the total access systems market will grow at a 16 percent
annual rate. Most of this expansion will be generated by increasing demand for
narrowband access technologies due to continued new subscriber growth, second line
growth, and deployments of new services.
The report documents a varied pattern of growth among the access systems deployed
by ILECs. "Because of cost of field-performance issues of current systems, ILEC
deployment of broadband/fiber-to-the-curb activity is winding down or has completely
stopped with fiber-to-the-curb systems being deployed as narrowband only, broadband
ready systems," observed Steve Korzyniowski, senior analyst. He added, "Trial activity
has shifted to non-fiber broadband alternatives, such as xDSL."
ryan hankin kent, inc. is a market research firm that specializes in analysis of advanced
communications technologies and services that affect the PSTN, cable TV and external
data/IP networks. The company has achieved a reputation for detail and accuracy in the
telecommunications industry. The "Loop Access Systems: Technology and Markets"
report is one of the volumes comprising RHK's STAR (Systems for
Telecommunications: Analysis and Research) continuous information service; a forecast
of markets and technologies affecting the future of telecommunications in North
America's public networks. RHK is based in South San Francisco, California. For more
information, visit the company's website at: HYPERLINK rhk.com or
contact Mike Mahan at 650/737-9600, fax 650/737-9766.
Note to Editors: A graphic reflecting access market trends is available for publication.
Please contact Catherine Cook, email: catherine_cook@rhk.com, voice: (+1)
650/737-9600.
CONTACT: ryan hankin kent, inc.
Mike Mahan / Jim Kent, 650/737-9600
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