Gene - Re: "I'd be interested in your cost estimates for Celeron-A. That's the kind of data that can help figure out the margins now and in the future"
The Celeron A, at 165 sq. mm. (my estimate), should cost about $35 - $40 for silicon only. Add $15 for packaging, assembly and test and the costs will be about $50 total - today.
The packaging costs will drop as the 370 pin PPGA package ramps up next year.
Now, Intel will eventually move the Celeron - A to a 0.18 micron process - probably by using the Coppermine as a basis. I would guess that the resultant die size should drop to 105 sq. mm., dropping the silicon cost to about $25 or $30 - allowing for a $500 increase in Silicon Wafer costs due to the 0.18 micron process. I may be too high on this, but it is best to be conservative.
With a $25 die cost, $10 in PPGA packaging, Intel will have a $35 overall cost.
Thus, Intel will make excellent money, even at $100 for 366 MHz Celeron-As, as they improve the performance and REDUCE COSTS simultaneously.
This is the road that Intel has traveled so successfully, Gene.
Improve Yields.
Introduce New Process Technology.
Increase performance.
Reduce Die size.
Increase yields
Reduce costs even more.
Paul |
