DSL will win over cable modems.
Confab explores DSL, cable
By Corey Grice
Staff Writer, CNET NEWS.COM
August 3, 1998, 1:10 p.m. PT
In the race to provide high-speed data access to
Internet users, DSL will win over cable modems, an
analyst at a BancAmerica Robertson Stephens
conference on the subject said today.
That's because copper networks already are
entrenched, and businesses will want to leverage
their existing investments in copper, said Paul
Johnson, a communications and networking analyst
at Robertson Stephens.
Johnson's comments came during the first day of a
two-day conference in San Francisco focusing on
e-commerce and the Net. The conference will
feature presentations from companies such as
E*Trade, Intuit, and CyberCash.
The tug-of-war between DSL and cable modems is
a closely watched battle, and nobody knows for sure
which side will prevail. Johnson said his prediction of
a DSL victory has less to do with the merits of DSL
and more to do with the existing copper
infrastructure.
"Nobody has love or hate for DSL. They don't care,
but it's got to be copper because you can't dig it up,"
he said. "What we have done with electronics for 30
years in communications is make copper more
efficient...so DSL is just an extension of a 30-year
trend that won't stop.
"It's too expensive to change the lines," Johnson
added. "As you get critical mass behind some of the
vendors, DSL wins for sure."
DSL carries data at high speeds over standard
copper telephone lines, and allows users to surf the
Net and talk on the phone at the same time, making
it especially attractive for the home and small-office
workplace.
Cable modems, meanwhile, are gaining popularity,
and some heavyweight investors are betting on cable
companies to provide expanded services in the
future. For example, Microsoft cofounder Paul Allen
agreed to buy Charter Communications last week,
and Microsoft invested $1 billion in Comcast last
year. (Allen is an investor in CNET: The Computer
Network, which publishes News.com.)
National Net access provider @Home, for its part,
will offer DSL service to small businesses later this
year, even though it remains committed to cable
modems.
Confusion over standards, including ADSL, DSL
Lite, and VDSL, poses an obstacle, but Johnson said
those issues will "resolve themselves in six to 12
months, for sure."
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