Today's AAPL/Nasdaq divergence is what I'm looking for in the two weeks ahead. Besides, the Nasdaq only needs to go down another 35 points for us to have an official 10% correction from the highs. If we can get that 10% soon and then hold 1800, I think we're primed for at least a stable week or two and then AAPL will have a clear shot at $40.
Marc,
The above is definitely a high-risk strategy, and I agree with you completely. Most of the box and chip makers were strong today, and they are likely to continue outperforming the greater market thru that point when sales volume rumors begin to surface. Apple, with its pending announcement of new high-end G3's, and its 10-day countdown to iMac 98, is likely to also outperform at least as well, although with higher volitality than normal.
A good market rally, especially one or more which conincide with high-tech strength, may very well push Apple to 40. If there is super-coordination, we could see better than 42. On the other hand, a market tank may not hold even (but will probably not fall very much either).
I increased my position today when Apple traded near 33 1/2. I was lucky that the timing allowed Apple the opportunity to rally and demonstrate its strength. I think this factor helped ensure a gain today. Even the final selloff (on much higher volume from Apple) was quickly negated by a sudden buying spree at the close.
I think the desirable outcome right now is a quick tank, perhaps 300 or 400 points in one day that might exhaust this market retreat. If Apple show relative strength, there is still much time to reflect the new product introduction. I also think the stock will move higher on virtually any market strength. It seems to me that it is the right time to take the risk. The potential profit is much higher.
Just my long-winded 4-bits worth,
Sam |
