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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble

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To: Caroline who wrote (948)	8/4/1998 5:05:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) of 3339

You seem to be saying that the market is in a pre-crash correction right now. What would distinguish the market's behavior as a "crash" rather than a "correction"? I have absolutely no idea whether there will or will not be a "crash". I'd bet though that the Dow won't be above 9000 or so at the end of the year. If there could be a "crash" it is worth comparing the current index history to those historic crashes. After the peak there is a decline then a small rally not reaching as high, then the crash. I was saying that the correction so far seemed pretty strong and fast compared to those previous pre crash correction (1929, 1987 and the mini one in 1997). So maybe there wouldn't actually be a crash per se - ie investors are a bit ahead of the game now compared to those historic events. But again (unlike the Elliott Wave theorists) I can see that there are lots of different possible paths and it's difficult to see out beyond 1 to 2 days at best. So anything could happen. The 1-2 days tells you if a crash could happen not if it will. David

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