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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Wright Sullivan who wrote (4593)8/4/1998 2:21:00 PM
From: Michael Burry  Read Replies (3) of 78702
 
Re: JOE

I couldn't have been more wrong on this stock, or many of my others
for that matter. I thought that at $31 the market had recognized the management changes and potential in St. Joe's land. I figured that with the land widely recognized as worth at least $30/share, that Wall Street would not let St. Joe get too much cheaper than that. I called it a margin of safety.

I did some pretty thorough valuation of its assets with conservative
numbers, and still came to at least $3B in assets. Yet here we are approaching 2/3 that. As a strict value player I should have waited for that 2/3 number. James bought at 2/3 and sold at 4/3. He called
it right and made a lot of money. I called it wrong and have lost quite a lot of money.

Today has been the worst day for my portfolio since at least 92. I'm down nearly 4%, and this comes after a string of 1.x% daily losses.
In case anyone is noticing, USEC is down a point. Deswell is down to bid 12 7/8 - I'm rapidly approaching a 50% loss on a stock that was debt-free with a PE of 8.5 and a 4% dividend when I bought it. YPF, General Cigar, if I own it, it's down.

Hard to figure, and hard to take. In fact, I feel not a little nausea
when I look at the dollar amount of my losses. Kudos to James and
Jeffrey for timing the market and coming out ahead.

Mike
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