Allright, no more taunts, but the yen is going over 160 by Oct. Here's some U.S. shorts (or puts on bought on U.S. stocks) and their appropriate reasons, LT.
1. Caterpillar and Deere, both earth moving equip co.s
While dining in a fine NYC bar a few months back, a friend introduced me to an individual who works at Mearsk, a Norwegian shipping Co. with ops in New Jersey and other locations. They're kind of like Sea Containers. Anyway, We discussed how the crates are coming in to the U.S. filled to the brim with imports, while the boats leaving NJ for far off lands are nearly empty - hence the current trade imbalance.
(Trade deficit means nothing though, because this country will never produce near what it consumes). He said that the companies being hurt the most be decreased orders were CAT and DE. These kinds of companies were enjoying prosperous times because of the emerging market boom and the growth of capitalism abroad, both leading to infrastructure development in otherwise lame countries. However, currency weakness and the cancellation of projects due to capital outflow in these emerging markets has led to decreased orders for both of 'em. I've only made good money off of CAT, which was partially aided by labor problems they had a few months back. People seem reluctant to dump DE
because it really is a great frigging company.
2. EarthShell
Read my posting on ERTH's thread.
3. I also bought puts on ELY (callaway golf) over 5 months ago when they issued a profit warning. I bought it as an el nino play! Anyway, it barely moved after the warning and the option later expired. Then last month they drop another earnings bomb and the stock tanked. If you're gonna spend good money on options, you've got to give yourself a lot of time, especially with the puts. That's the hardest lesson I've learnt in the last 6 months.
Another thing working against us shorts:
How hard is it for AMAT and INTC to meet estimates when these frigging investment banks keep cutting the estimates? Not very hard! I can't make money shorting INTC even when they throw up on their shoes.
The reason happened when I tried to long AMR a couple weeks back in hope of a positive earnings surprise. My guess was that the lower fuel prices this Q would pad the bottom line for all the airlines. Well, they trounced the estimates, but the stock tanked because of lower South American Revenue. Hey, the company is called AMR, not SAMR. |
