Carl-
Hi! I read with interest your long term views on the PC industry, as you were an active poster on the Dell long thread about 2 months or so ago....
If I recall correctly, you predicted that PC would eventually be mass-produced at extremely low price level (around $300-400), and that this would crush (almost) all profit out of the producers, and destroy equity prices for these companies....I believe you originally forecasted these events to begin to take hold in 1999, and later I've seen you post around the year 2000...
From what I have observed in the PC market over the last few months, I am having difficulty seeing where your prediction will come true. First of all, Dell is having a monster quarter........and it is apparent that corporate PC demand for well-priced, high-performance machines is still robust.....Although ASP's continue to fall, there is evidence that the slide has mitigated somewhat...I have yet to see any of the major PC producers make inroads with anything resembling the PC's that you are describing....
So, my question is, where do you stand now to your previous predictions? Still holding firm? Are there any other factors that have caused any alterations in your view? What will be the warning signs, in your view, when your prophecy begins to take hold?
I have to tell you, I am having a difficult time believing "end is near" stories for the PC industry....The Gartner Group in April came out strongly and predicted a big decline for high-end PC sales in the corporate market (in favor of sub-1000's)..and that this trend would continue ad nauseum.....At the time, Dell's management put out a very different view .......based on Dell's quarter, Dell has been very right, and Gartner Group very wrong..
Am open to your ideas...Try me...
Thanks in advance.. |
